As noted by commenter Mike, there have been additional changes in the last five years that should also be taken under consideration, including changes to Military Specialty Pay.
Before moving on to the financial implications of this decision (that you’re all so interested in), I’d just like to emphasize that this is not primarily a financial question.
Many, perhaps most, military doctors get out as soon as their required educational debt is paid off, often after 3-8 years. They do so not just because they desire higher pay but because they don’t enjoy the frequent deployments.
Most docs retire as O-5s or O-6s. An O-6 with 18 years of service (in 2017) makes $9,543 per month or $114,516 per year, and it goes up just about every year. 50% of that is $57,258.
In order to come out ahead separating from the military, you not only need to make more money as a civilian, you need to make a LOT more money AND be disciplined enough to save it.
How much more do you need to save each year to have an additional $2.5 Million by the time you would have otherwise retired? I’m assuming a pretty decent 5% after-inflation.