How to Invest with a Looming Recession

Jack Bogle was fond of saying, don’t just do something, stand there! At least in terms of your investments. Many of the most successful long-term investors devise a plan and stick to it, no matter the larger environment.

This means using discipline and removing emotion from investing. Mike Piper, CPA, from the Oblivious Investor, answers a question about investing during tumultuous times like these.

How to Invest with a Looming Recession

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It’s important to make a distinction between the stock market and recessions. For a few reasons, a recession happening over a particular period does not necessarily mean that the stock market would perform poorly over that period.

Firstly, the stock market is concerned with how much profit businesses earn. Recessions are determined by changes in production.

Second, GDP is concerned with a broader group of entities. The stock market is the market for publicly-traded corporations. So by definition it’s only concerned with publicly-traded corporations.

Finally, the most important distinction, for our purposes, is that the price of a stock is essentially a prediction. It’s a function of how much the market collectively expects that company to earn.

Moving in and out of stocks (or in and out of certain sub-categories of stocks) usually doesn’t make sense, because of how hard this guessing game is.

So How Should We Invest?

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