We humans would love to be able to see the future.That need naturally makes us gravitate toward experts and forecasters who tell us what’s likely to happen, to peek around the corner.
But the hard-learned truth of investing is that no one knows anything and anyone can predict anything.In this post, from Of Dollars and Data, we see how in investing prognostications, even a broken clock can be right twice a day.
I don’t mean to pick on Kiyosaki because many others have made equally wrong predictions in the past. But, Kiyosaki is the most popular person doing it, and as the chart above illustrates, he has been doing it for a long time.
But the real tragedy here is that one day he will be right. One day a crash will come and Kiyosaki will take a victory lap for all to see.Will his prior incorrect calls matter? Not at all.
You can try to point out his flawed track record, but it won’t make a difference. Most people aren’t going to see your reply. But what they will see is his tweet. They will feel the pain from the crash after it happens and then they will think, “Kiyosaki knew it all along.”
Oh he got it wrong eight times before? Who cares? He is right now, isn’t he?The saying goes that even a broken clock is right twice a day. Well, if that clock happens to predict the next time you could lose money, you still might listen. It doesn’t really matter that the clock doesn’t work all the time, does it?