The Sunday Best 04/27/2025

Author Jorge Sanchez, MD

April 27, 2025

I hope you’re doing well.

Several years ago I went on a photo tour in Glacier National Park. It was an incredible experience, especially the part where we saw brown bears in their natural habitat. Our guide gave us some crucial advice: “If a brown bear sees you, the worst thing you can do is run. Running triggers their chase instinct, and you won’t outrun a bear.”

This got me thinking about today’s volatile market, which is a bear market. It’s natural to feel fear when you see your investments decline. The urge to “run”—to drastically change your investment strategy—can be strong.

But, just like in Glacier National Park, the worst thing you can do is panic.

The attached graph illustrates this point. It shows that while bear markets (the downward slopes) can be scary, the long-term trend (the upward slopes) demonstrates the power of staying the course. Corrections are points in time, wealth creation happens over time.

Key Takeaway:

Don’t let fear dictate your investment decisions.
Bear markets are a normal part of the economic cycle.
Focus on the long-term, not short-term fluctuations.

Bears in the market, bears in the park: running is never the answer. Stay calm, stay invested, and trust the long-term climb.

Best,
Jorge Sanchez, MD
Naples, Florida

The Sunday Best 04/27/2025

From and for the markets: Barry Ritholtz posits that macro forecasting is virtually impossible, citing the billions of interconnected global economic variables and complex interactions as reasons why predicting the future is far harder than solving simpler problems.

Jeffrey Frankel peers into the murky world of recession forecasting, revealing how while indicators like plummeting confidence and prediction markets pointing to roughly 55% odds signal heightened risk, the surprising truth is that we can only confirm a downturn has begun well after the fact.

Forget trying to time the next economic downturn – experts agree a recession is eventually inevitable, but the timing remains unknown; instead of focusing on fleeting sentiment, the real goal is building durable financial resilience for an uncertain future.

When markets turn volatile, resisting the urge to hide from your investment accounts is key; looking offers crucial opportunities to implement smart, long-term strategies like cutting fees, optimizing diversification, and staying on track, ultimately building resilience.

Why strive for financial optimization when building “room for error” offers the real security? This intentional buffer allows you to weather economic storms and life’s inevitable chaos without being pushed to the brink.

When the world feels inside out and upside down – volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) – staying centered isn’t about controlling the chaos, but about building internal fortitude by anchoring to purpose, cultivating agility, exercising agency, and extending grace.

A reality check on audacious AI promises: while some envision artificial intelligence curing all disease within a decade, many in the field argue that biology’s immense complexity and vast gaps in our fundamental knowledge present far greater obstacles than current AI capabilities can realistically clear anytime soon.

Amidst 2025’s volatile market shifts, portfolio diversification has proven its value; spreading investments across asset classes provided a crucial shield against losses and revealed strength in areas unaffected by the primary downturn.

Amidst tariff-driven economic chaos and a flight from traditional US safe havens like bonds and the dollar, gold is becoming the rare asset where investors are finding refuge, driving its price to record highs in a global search for tangible security.

Here’s Bloomberg on the current relationship between investors and gold:

Here’s Why Investors Can’t Get Enough of Gold | Here’s Why